How Donald Trump Achieved a Gaza Breakthrough Which Escaped Biden
Initially, Israel's aerial attack on the Hamas negotiating team in Doha appeared like yet another intensification that pushed the prospect of peace further away.
The attack on September 9 violated the sovereignty of an US partner and threatened widening the conflict into a region-wide war.
Diplomacy seemed to be collapsing.
However, it turned out to be a pivotal event that has led in a deal, declared by President Donald Trump, to free all captives still held.
That represents a objective that Trump, and President Joe Biden previously, had sought for almost 24 months.
This marks just the first step towards a lasting resolution, and the details of disarming Hamas, administering Gaza and full Israeli withdrawal are still to be worked out.
But if this deal stands, it could be Donald Trump's signature achievement of his return to office - one that eluded Biden and his administration.
The president's distinct approach and key alliances with the Israeli government and the Middle Eastern nations seem to have contributed in this success.
However, as with most diplomatic achievements, there were also elements at play beyond the control of both leaders.
A Close Relationship That Eluded Biden
Publicly, Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are all smiles.
The president likes to say that the nation has no greater ally, and the Israeli leader has described Trump as the country's "greatest ever ally in the US presidency". Moreover these positive statements have been matched by deeds.
Throughout his initial time in office, Trump moved the American diplomatic mission in the country from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and discarded a long-held US position that Israeli settlements in the Palestinian West Bank are illegal, the view under international law.
After Israel began its air strikes against Iran in the summer, the US leader directed American aircraft to target the Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities with its most powerful conventional bombs.
These visible shows of support may have allowed Trump the room to exert more influence on the Israeli government behind the scenes. As per sources, Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, pressured Netanyahu in the latter part of the year into agreeing to a halt in fighting in return for the release of a number of captives.
When Israel attacked against Syrian forces in the summer, even bombing a Christian church, the US president urged Netanyahu to change course.
The leader displayed a degree of determination and pressure on an Israeli prime minister that is virtually unprecedented, according to an analyst of the a think tank. "It's unheard of of an US leader literally telling an Israeli leader that they must agree or else."
Biden's relationship with the Israeli administration was always more tenuous.
His administration's "close embrace approach" held that the US had to support Israel openly in order to allow it to influence the country's military actions in private.
Underneath this was Biden's nearly half-century of backing for Israel, as well as sharp divisions within his political base over the conflict in Gaza. Every step the leader took endangered dividing his own political backing, while his successor's loyal conservative voters provided him more room to act.
In the end, domestic politics or personal relationships may have had less importance than the simple fact that, during Biden's presidency, Israel was not ready to make peace.
Several months into Trump's second term, with Iran chastened, Hezbollah to its northern border greatly diminished and Gaza devastated, every one of its key military goals had been achieved.
Business History Helped Secure Support from Arab States
An Israeli strike in the Qatari capital, which resulted in the death of a Qatari citizen but not the intended targets, led Trump to issue an final demand to Netanyahu. Hostilities had to stop.
The US leader had given Israel a relatively free hand in Gaza. The president provided American military might to Israeli operations in the neighboring country. But an strike on Qatari territory was a separate issue entirely, pushing him towards the Arab position on how best to end the war.
Several administration figures have told media outlets that this was a turning point which galvanised the president to apply full force to get a peace deal done.
The leader's close ties with the Gulf states are widely known. Trump has commercial interests with the emirate and the United Arab Emirates. He began both his presidential terms with state visits to Saudi Arabia. This year, he also visited in Doha and the UAE capital.
His normalization agreements, which normalised relations between the Jewish state and a number of Arab nations, including the Emirates, was the biggest foreign policy success of his initial presidency.
His visits he spent in the cities of the Gulf region earlier this year contributed to shift his perspective, according to an expert of the a policy institute. Trump did not travel to Israel on this Middle East trip but went to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and the state where he received repeated calls to put a stop to the war.
Less than a month after that attack on the city, Trump sat nearby as the prime minister himself called Qatar to apologise. Subsequently, the prime minister gave approval on the president's 20-point peace plan for Gaza - one that also had the support of key Muslim nations in the region.
Assuming the president's alliance with his counterpart provided him the ability to influence Israel to reach an agreement, his past with Arab rulers may have ensured their support, and helped them persuade Hamas to agree to the deal.
"A key factor that evidently occurred was that the US leader gained leverage with the Israeli government, and through intermediaries with Hamas," notes an analyst of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"That made a difference. His ability to achieve this on his own schedule, and not succumb to the desires of the combatants has been a challenge that many earlier administrations have faced, and Trump appears to do with some success."
The reality that the president is much more popular in Israel than the prime minister personally was an advantage that he used to his benefit, the expert continues.
Now Israel has agreed to releasing over a thousand Palestinians imprisoned in Israeli prisons and has agreed to a limited pullback from the strip.
The group will free all the captives still held, both alive and deceased, captured during the original 7 October assault, which caused the loss of more than 1,200 Israelis.
An end to the war, which has led to the destruction of Gaza and the fatalities of over 67,000 {Palestinians|Pal