Keir Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Significant Barriers in the Selection Process
Several figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avert any future leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
